An unconditional maximum likelihood test for a unit root

We investigate a test for unit roots in autoregressive time series based on maximization of the unconditional likelihood. This is the likelihood function appropriate for stationary time series. While this function is the true likelihood only under the stationary alternative, it can nevertheless be maximized for any data including data from a unit root process. It thus gives a way to test for unit roots, provided percentill~s can be calculated. For models with estimated means, the power of the new test is better than that of some currently popular tests

Confidence-Based Learning in Investment Analysis

The aim of this study is to determine the effectiveness of using multiple choice tests in subjects related to the administration and business management. To this end we used a multiple-choice test with specific questions to verify the extent of knowledge gained and the confidence and trust in the answers. The tests were performed in a group of 200 students at the bachelor's degree in Business Administration and Management. The analysis made have been implemented in one subject of the scope of investment analysis and measured the level of knowledge gained and the degree of trust and security in the responses at two different times of the course. The measurements have been taken into account different levels of difficulty in the questions asked and the time spent by students to complete the test. The results confirm that students are generally able to obtain more knowledge along the way and get increases in the degree of trust and confidence in the answers. It is confirmed as the difficulty level of the questions set a priori by the heads of the subjects are related to levels of security and confidence in the answers. It is estimated that the improvement in the skills learned is viewed favourably by businesses and are especially important for job placement of students

Robustness of airline alliance route networks

The aim of this study is to analyze the robustness of the three major airline alliances’ (i.e., Star Alliance, oneworld and SkyTeam) route networks. Firstly, the normalization of a multi-scale measure of vulnerability is proposed in order to perform the analysis in networks with different sizes, i.e., number of nodes. An alternative node selection criterion is also proposed in order to study robustness and vulnerability of such complex networks, based on network efficiency. And lastly, a new procedure – the inverted adaptive strategy – is presented to sort the nodes in order to anticipate network breakdown. Finally, the robustness of the three alliance networks are analyzed with (1) a normalized multi-scale measure of vulnerability, (2) an adaptive strategy based on four different criteria and (3) an inverted adaptive strategy based on the efficiency criterion. The results show that Star Alliance has the most resilient route network, followed by SkyTeam and then oneworld. It was also shown that the inverted adaptive strategy based on the efficiency criterion – inverted efficiency – shows a great success in quickly breaking networks similar to that found with betweenness criterion but with even better results.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author’s final draft

Vector bundles of non-negative curvature over cohomogeneity one manifolds

We provide several results on the existence of metrics of non-negative sectional curvature on vector bundles over certain cohomogeneity one manifolds and homogeneous spaces up to suitable stabilization. Beside explicit constructions of the metrics, this is achieved by identifying equivariant structures upon these vector bundles via a comparison of their equivariant and non-equivariant K-theory. For this, in particular, we transcribe equivariant K-theory to equivariant rational cohomology and investigate surjectivity properties of induced maps in the Borel fibration via rational homotopy theory.Comment: some upgrades and modification

Aircraft clouds: from chemtrail pseudoscience to the science of contrails

The most frequent statements and arguments found in pseudoscience websites and forums supporting the existence of so-called aircraft chemtrails can be refuted with a scientific explanation of the processes resulting in the formation of condensation or deposition trails, known as contrails. Thus, the hypothesis that chemtrails exist is disproven by the scientific literature that shows that they are the exact same entity as contrails: They are hydrological phenomena which result from a physical process referenced in the many studies carried out since the beginning of the age of aviation, in the early twentieth century. Hence, in this paper we conclude that pseudoscience’s chemtrails are nothing more than the contrails described by science.Peer ReviewedVersió final publicad